AP Wire Story on election

Here is a published version of an interesting AP wire story on the election. Andrew Taylor and I are the local talent....

Article published Oct 30, 2006
Democratic surge might hit N.C. delegation

Marshall | Emma Jean Radford almost always votes an anti-abortion ballot, which means she almost always votes Republican - even when she doesn't like the GOP candidate.
But this year, the high school teacher is thinking about voting for a Democrat. And that doesn't bode well for veteran Rep. Charles Taylor and his party, which could lose control of the House if Taylor and others fall victim to a potential Democratic surge driven by the war in Iraq and dissatisfaction with President Bush.
"I do not like Taylor, but I do know that Taylor has voted pro-life," Radford said. "I have two teenage boys, and I do feel like we need a change. We need to know where we're going."
For Democrats hoping to take control of both houses of Congress for the first time since the Republican sweep of 1994, picking off one or two Republicans in reliably red-state North Carolina could be key.
Five of the state's seven GOP incumbents - Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Howard Coble, Walter Jones and Sue Myrick - are generally considered safe. Robin Hayes, a four-term incumbent who represents a majority-Democratic district in south-central North Carolina, is thought by some to be potentially vulnerable to a Democratic surge that could push opponent Larry Kissell into office.
"I do think North Carolina is feeling the national tide," North Carolina State political scientist Andrew Taylor said. "That's the reason Taylor's in trouble and perhaps Hayes is, too."
Since last spring, polls and analysts have anticipated Heath Shuler, a moderate Democrat who opposes abortion and supports gun rights, would give Taylor his toughest race in more than a decade. Shuler has the name recognition that comes from winning three state titles as a quarterback at Swain County High School and later playing in the National Football League.
Shuler's moderate stances play well in a district that stretches from Asheville to the state's western tip, and is filled with swing Democrats who take faith and social issues seriously.
Radford was among those who heard Shuler speak recently to a group of teachers at Madison County High School.
"I really would like to look at his Web site," she said afterward. "When I really, really get a feel for what Mr. Shuler is saying, then I can make my decision. The TV (advertising) is so negative. This is the first time I've heard how he feels about any of the issues."
Kissell has won ardent liberal support by attacking Hayes for his vote in favor of the Central American Free Trade Agreement, as well as his determination to run a grass-roots campaign - his campaign recently bragged about having less than $90. The well-funded Hayes has attacked Kissell, a high school social studies teacher from rural Biscoe, for his positions on Iraq and his criticism of the new Medicare prescription drug plan.
Representing a district in which registrations favor Democrats by about 191,000 to 118,000, Hayes captured 56 percent of the vote in winning a fourth term in 2004.
Of course, that same year, George W. Bush carried North Carolina with 56 percent of the vote. Two years later, more North Carolinians disapprove of Bush's job performance than approve, by a margin of 48 percent to 45 percent, according to a recent Elon University poll.
Duke University political scientist Mike Munger believes Democrats such as Kissell could benefit from anger in the Christian right over the scandal involving GOP Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate communications with male pages. The notion that the House GOP leadership failed to take effective action against Foley, despite years of warnings about his behavior, could keep some traditionally Republican voters home on Election Day.
"In any election, there is a moment, perhaps a trivial one, that focuses things in voters' minds. It can either make them choose a candidate, or make them lose enthusiasm for a candidate or party and stay home," Munger said in an e-mail. "The question in North Carolina is this: Is the Mark Foley affair going to be that moment?"
If so, Munger said, Hayes could lose, Taylor's 16-year House career will likely come to an end, and even Foxx could be in danger. Hayes, Taylor and Foxx, who represents a district that runs from Winston-Salem into the state's northwestern corner, were the only GOP representatives to win with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2004.
The most spirited challenge to a Democratic incumbent is being mounted in the north-central district represented by Brad Miller. There, Republican Vernon Robinson has campaigned with a series of blunt anti-immigration and anti-gay advertisements on radio, the Internet and television. In one, Robinson claims that "if Miller had his way, America would be nothing but one big fiesta for illegal aliens and homosexuals."
Few analysts expect Robinson to oust Miller, who has represented the district since it was created when North Carolina gained a House seat following the 2000 census.
Robinson's focus on national issues, such as immigration, bucks the trend this year in North Carolina, where the lack of a Senate or presidential race at the top of the ticket has kept local issues at the forefront. Kissell, for example, has used Hayes' CAFTA vote to question whether the incumbent has done enough to attract and keep jobs in the mostly rural district, which has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs to foreign competition in recent years.
In the mountains, Shuler has attacked Taylor on ethics issues and for failing to represent "mountain values." Taylor has highlighted his efforts to improve education and Internet access in the region, emphasizing his powerful position on the House Appropriations Committee that enables him to bring federal money back to the district.
It was telling that when President Bush visited North Carolina earlier this month, he didn't make campaign appearances with either Hayes or Taylor.
"Obviously, Republicans don't want North Carolina voters focusing on Washington at the moment," said Andrew Taylor, the N.C. State political scientist.